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Western Islands: what a changing climate means, and when

Western Islands: about 53 years until another tenth of its land sits below the safety line at today's pace (2079).

At today's pace of emissions. An area-wide estimate for Western Islands planning area, not a reading for any one building.

Open Western Islands on the map

The three dates for Western Islands

	Best case	At today's pace	Worst case
Coastal	209670 years · inside a 99-year lease	207953 years · inside a 99-year lease	206337 years · inside a 99-year lease
Heat	Not before 2100	Not before 2100	Not before 2100
Flash-flood downpours, island-wide	Not before 2100	209064 years · inside a 99-year lease	205630 years · inside a 30-year mortgage

Coastal: another tenth of the area's land sits below the safety line (3 m above mean sea level plus projected sea-level rise). Heat: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C. Flash-flood downpours: days with 50 mm or more of rain across Singapore reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level; one date for every area, since the rain model can't tell neighbouring areas apart. For local flooding, see PUB's list below. Mortgage and lease are counted from today.

If you own in Western Islands

The coastal date falls after a 30-year mortgage and inside a 99-year lease.

2026TodayAbout 10% of the land is below the safety line, protected by seawalls, tidal gates and drains.
205630-year mortgage endsIf taken out today.
2079Coastal date · 53 yearsAnother tenth of the land sits below the safety line. It will depend on coastal protection, much of which is still being studied or planned.
2090Flash-flood downpours · 64 yearsIsland-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level.
2100HeatThis date is not reached by here, which is as far as that data goes.
212599-year lease endsIf it started today. Count from your own start date.

What to raise with your managing agent or town council

What is the ground level of our block, in metres above mean sea level?
How high is the basement carpark entrance above the road?
When is coastal protection planned for this stretch of coast?
Has our street or carpark ponded in heavy rain, and what was done about it?

If you are buying in Western Islands

6 questions to take to a viewing.

Sea level: inside a 99-year lease

In about 53 years (2079), another tenth of the land sits below the safety line. About 10% already does and is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains.

What is the ground level of this block, in metres above mean sea level?
Is there a basement carpark or basement unit, and how high is its entrance above the road?
When is coastal protection planned for this stretch of coast, and has PUB's study for it been completed?

Flash floods: inside a 99-year lease

PUB lists no flood-prone area or hotspot in Western Islands. Island-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain go from 6.6 to 8.7 a year by 2100, reaching 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level by 2090.

Has this street flooded in heavy rain before?
Has the carpark or ground floor ponded in heavy rain before?

Heat: not before 2100

Days at or above 35°C go from 0 to 0 a year by 2100, staying under 30 a year.

Which way does the unit face, and how much afternoon sun does it take?

The numbers

	Today	2050	2100
Land below the safety line	10%	14%	24%
Days at or above 35°C a year	0	0	0
Days with 50 mm or more of rain a year, island-wide	6.6	7.6	8.7

At today's pace of emissions (SSP2-4.5). "Today" is modelled, not measured. Western Islands covers 45.8 km² with a median ground height of 4.6 m.

NEA's Banyan Road (Jurong Island) station recorded 0.9 days a year at or above 35°C in 2014 to 2024 (11 full years). The model gives 0.0 for the same years, as an average over the whole area.

How these are worked out

Ground heat in Western Islands today

Tree cover	18% of land
Ground by day, vs island	+1.3°C 35 of 55, 1 = coolest
Ground at night, vs island	+1.0°C 49 of 55, 1 = coolest

In the middle of 55 areas by day; hotter than most at night. Few tall trees to shade streets. Satellite readings of the ground surface, not the air: Landsat by day (2016–2025), MODIS at night, ESA WorldCover for trees. They describe today, not a forecast.

Other planning areas

An independent project, not produced or endorsed by CCRS, NEA, PUB, URA or any government agency. Low land in Singapore is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains; these dates show when more of it will depend on that protection. Prompts, not property, insurance or investment advice.