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Rochor: what a changing climate means, and when

Rochor: about 48 years until another tenth of its land sits below the safety line at today's pace (2074).

At today's pace of emissions. An area-wide estimate for Rochor planning area, not a reading for any one building.

Open Rochor on the map

The three dates for Rochor

Best caseAt today's paceWorst case
Coastal208963 years · inside a 99-year lease207448 years · inside a 99-year lease205933 years · inside a 99-year lease
HeatNot before 2100Not before 2100205832 years · inside a 99-year lease
Flash-flood downpours, island-wideNot before 2100209064 years · inside a 99-year lease205630 years · inside a 30-year mortgage

Coastal: another tenth of the area's land sits below the safety line (3 m above mean sea level plus projected sea-level rise). Heat: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C. Flash-flood downpours: days with 50 mm or more of rain across Singapore reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level; one date for every area, since the rain model can't tell neighbouring areas apart. For local flooding, see PUB's list below. Mortgage and lease are counted from today.

If you own in Rochor

The coastal date falls after a 30-year mortgage and inside a 99-year lease.

  1. 2026TodayAbout 16% of the land is below the safety line, protected by seawalls, tidal gates and drains.
  2. 205630-year mortgage endsIf taken out today.
  3. 2074Coastal date · 48 yearsAnother tenth of the land sits below the safety line. It will depend on coastal protection, much of which is still being studied or planned.
  4. 2090Flash-flood downpours · 64 yearsIsland-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level.
  5. 2100HeatThis date is not reached by here, which is as far as that data goes.
  6. 212599-year lease endsIf it started today. Count from your own start date.

What to raise with your managing agent or town council

If you are buying in Rochor

6 questions to take to a viewing.

Sea level: inside a 99-year lease

In about 48 years (2074), another tenth of the land sits below the safety line. About 16% already does and is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains.

Flash floods: inside a 99-year lease

PUB lists 2 flood-prone areas or hotspots in Rochor. Island-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain go from 6.6 to 8.7 a year by 2100, reaching 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level by 2090.

Heat: not before 2100

Days at or above 35°C go from 3 to 27 a year by 2100, staying under 30 a year.

The numbers

Today20502100
Land below the safety line16%21%33%
Days at or above 35°C a year3727
Days with 50 mm or more of rain a year, island-wide6.67.68.7

At today's pace of emissions (SSP2-4.5). "Today" is modelled, not measured. Rochor covers 1.6 km² with a median ground height of 3.5 m.

PUB flood-prone areas and hotspots in Rochor

How these are worked out

Ground heat in Rochor today

Tree cover8% of land
Ground by day, vs island+3.0°C 49 of 55, 1 = coolest
Ground at night, vs island+1.0°C 47 of 55, 1 = coolest

Hotter than most of 55 areas by day and at night. Few tall trees to shade streets. Satellite readings of the ground surface, not the air: Landsat by day (2016–2025), MODIS at night, ESA WorldCover for trees. They describe today, not a forecast.

Other planning areas

An independent project, not produced or endorsed by CCRS, NEA, PUB, URA or any government agency. Low land in Singapore is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains; these dates show when more of it will depend on that protection. Prompts, not property, insurance or investment advice.

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