All areas · West region

Tuas: what a changing climate means, and when

Tuas: about 123 years until another tenth of its land sits below the safety line at today's pace (2149).

At today's pace of emissions. An area-wide estimate for Tuas planning area, not a reading for any one building.

The three dates for Tuas

	Best case	At today's pace	Worst case
Coastal	Not before 2150	2149123 years · after a 99-year lease	211488 years · inside a 99-year lease
Heat	Not before 2100	Not before 2100	208862 years · inside a 99-year lease
Flash-flood downpours, island-wide	Not before 2100	209064 years · inside a 99-year lease	205630 years · inside a 30-year mortgage

Coastal: another tenth of the area's land sits below the safety line (3 m above mean sea level plus projected sea-level rise). Heat: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C. Flash-flood downpours: days with 50 mm or more of rain across Singapore reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level; one date for every area, since the rain model can't tell neighbouring areas apart. For local flooding, see PUB's list below. Mortgage and lease are counted from today.

If you own in Tuas

The island-wide downpour date falls after a 30-year mortgage and inside a 99-year lease.

2026TodayAbout 3% of the land is below the safety line.
205630-year mortgage endsIf taken out today.
2090Flash-flood downpours · 64 yearsIsland-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level.
2100HeatThis date is not reached by here, which is as far as that data goes.
212599-year lease endsIf it started today. Count from your own start date.
2149Coastal date · 123 yearsAnother tenth of the land sits below the safety line. It will depend on coastal protection, much of which is still being studied or planned.

What to raise with your managing agent or town council

Has our street or carpark ponded in heavy rain, and what was done about it?
Has the basement carpark taken in water in heavy rain?
What shade or cooling work is planned for the estate?

If you are buying in Tuas

3 questions to take to a viewing.

Sea level: after a 99-year lease

In about 123 years (2149), another tenth of the land sits below the safety line.

Flash floods: inside a 99-year lease

PUB lists no flood-prone area or hotspot in Tuas. Island-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain go from 6.6 to 8.7 a year by 2100, reaching 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level by 2090.

Has this street flooded in heavy rain before?
Has the carpark or ground floor ponded in heavy rain before?

Heat: not before 2100

Days at or above 35°C go from 1 to 5 a year by 2100, staying under 30 a year.

Which way does the unit face, and how much afternoon sun does it take?

The numbers

	Today	2050	2100
Land below the safety line	3%	5%	9%
Days at or above 35°C a year	1	2	5
Days with 50 mm or more of rain a year, island-wide	6.6	7.6	8.7

At today's pace of emissions (SSP2-4.5). "Today" is modelled, not measured. Tuas covers 47.7 km² with a median ground height of 5.6 m.

NEA's Tuas South Avenue 3 station recorded 0.9 days a year at or above 35°C in 2014 to 2024 (11 full years). The model gives 0.6 for the same years, as an average over the whole area.

How these are worked out

Ground heat in Tuas today

Tree cover	9% of land
Ground by day, vs island	+3.4°C 52 of 55, 1 = coolest
Ground at night, vs island	+0.6°C 32 of 55, 1 = coolest

Among the 5 hottest of 55 areas by day; in the middle at night. Few tall trees to shade streets. Satellite readings of the ground surface, not the air: Landsat by day (2016–2025), MODIS at night, ESA WorldCover for trees. They describe today, not a forecast.

Other planning areas

An independent project, not produced or endorsed by CCRS, NEA, PUB, URA or any government agency. Low land in Singapore is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains; these dates show when more of it will depend on that protection. Prompts, not property, insurance or investment advice.