All areas · North region

Mandai: what a changing climate means, and when

Mandai: little of the land is low-lying, so heat comes first: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C in about 12 years (2038) at today's pace.

At today's pace of emissions. An area-wide estimate for Mandai planning area, not a reading for any one building.

Open Mandai on the map

The three dates for Mandai

	Best case	At today's pace	Worst case
Coastal	Not before 2150	Not before 2150	Not before 2150
Heat	204822 years · inside a 30-year mortgage	203812 years · inside a 30-year mortgage	20326 years · inside a 30-year mortgage
Flash-flood downpours, island-wide	Not before 2100	209064 years · inside a 99-year lease	205630 years · inside a 30-year mortgage

Coastal: another tenth of the area's land sits below the safety line (3 m above mean sea level plus projected sea-level rise). Heat: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C. Flash-flood downpours: days with 50 mm or more of rain across Singapore reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level; one date for every area, since the rain model can't tell neighbouring areas apart. For local flooding, see PUB's list below. Mortgage and lease are counted from today.

If you own in Mandai

The heat date falls inside a 30-year mortgage.

2026TodayAbout 0% of the land is below the safety line.
2038Heat date · 12 years30 or more days a year at or above 35°C.
205630-year mortgage endsIf taken out today.
2090Flash-flood downpours · 64 yearsIsland-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level.
212599-year lease endsIf it started today. Count from your own start date.
2150CoastalNo coastal date by here, which is as far as the sea-level data goes.

What to raise with your managing agent or town council

Has our street or carpark ponded in heavy rain, and what was done about it?
Has the basement carpark taken in water in heavy rain?
What shade or cooling work is planned for the estate?

If you are buying in Mandai

4 questions to take to a viewing.

Sea level: not before 2150

Little of the land is low-lying: 0% is below the safety line today and 0% by 2100.

Flash floods: inside a 99-year lease

PUB lists no flood-prone area or hotspot in Mandai. Island-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain go from 6.6 to 8.7 a year by 2100, reaching 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level by 2090.

Has this street flooded in heavy rain before?
Has the carpark or ground floor ponded in heavy rain before?

Heat: inside a 30-year mortgage

Days at or above 35°C go from 16 to 97 a year by 2100, passing 30 a year by 2038.

Which way does the unit face, and how much afternoon sun does it take?
How much shade and greenery is there around the block?

The numbers

	Today	2050	2100
Land below the safety line	0%	0%	0%
Days at or above 35°C a year	16	36	97
Days with 50 mm or more of rain a year, island-wide	6.6	7.6	8.7

At today's pace of emissions (SSP2-4.5). "Today" is modelled, not measured. Mandai covers 11.8 km² with a median ground height of 24.4 m.

NEA's Sembawang Meteorological Station station recorded 3.5 days a year at or above 35°C in 2014 to 2024 (6 full years). The model gives 10.6 for the same years, as an average over the whole area.

How these are worked out

Ground heat in Mandai today

Tree cover	61% of land
Ground by day, vs island	−2.3°C 8 of 55, 1 = coolest
Ground at night, vs island	−0.6°C 5 of 55, 1 = coolest

Cooler than most of 55 areas by day; among the 5 coolest at night. 33% of the land is under trees taller than 10 m. Satellite readings of the ground surface, not the air: Landsat by day (2016–2025), MODIS at night, ESA WorldCover for trees. They describe today, not a forecast.

Other planning areas

An independent project, not produced or endorsed by CCRS, NEA, PUB, URA or any government agency. Low land in Singapore is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains; these dates show when more of it will depend on that protection. Prompts, not property, insurance or investment advice.