All areas · Central region

Novena: what a changing climate means, and when

Novena: little of the land is low-lying, so heat comes first: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C in about 45 years (2071) at today's pace.

At today's pace of emissions. An area-wide estimate for Novena planning area, not a reading for any one building.

Open Novena on the map

The three dates for Novena

	Best case	At today's pace	Worst case
Coastal	Not before 2150	Not before 2150	212599 years · inside a 99-year lease
Heat	Not before 2100	207145 years · inside a 99-year lease	204923 years · inside a 30-year mortgage
Flash-flood downpours, island-wide	Not before 2100	209064 years · inside a 99-year lease	205630 years · inside a 30-year mortgage

Coastal: another tenth of the area's land sits below the safety line (3 m above mean sea level plus projected sea-level rise). Heat: 30 or more days a year at or above 35°C. Flash-flood downpours: days with 50 mm or more of rain across Singapore reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level; one date for every area, since the rain model can't tell neighbouring areas apart. For local flooding, see PUB's list below. Mortgage and lease are counted from today.

If you own in Novena

The heat date falls after a 30-year mortgage and inside a 99-year lease.

2026TodayAbout 2% of the land is below the safety line.
205630-year mortgage endsIf taken out today.
2071Heat date · 45 years30 or more days a year at or above 35°C.
2090Flash-flood downpours · 64 yearsIsland-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain reach 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level.
212599-year lease endsIf it started today. Count from your own start date.
2150CoastalNo coastal date by here, which is as far as the sea-level data goes.

What to raise with your managing agent or town council

Is our street one of the 2 flood-prone areas or hotspots PUB lists in Novena?
Has the basement carpark taken in water in heavy rain?
What shade or cooling work is planned for the estate?

If you are buying in Novena

3 questions to take to a viewing.

Sea level: not before 2150

Little of the land is low-lying: 2% is below the safety line today and 7% by 2100.

Flash floods: inside a 99-year lease

PUB lists 2 flood-prone areas or hotspots in Novena. Island-wide, days with 50 mm or more of rain go from 6.6 to 8.7 a year by 2100, reaching 1.5 times their 1995–2014 level by 2090.

PUB lists 2 flood-prone areas or hotspots in Novena. Is this street one of them, and has its drainage been upgraded?
Has the carpark or ground floor ponded in heavy rain before?

Heat: inside a 99-year lease

Days at or above 35°C go from 6 to 53 a year by 2100, passing 30 a year by 2071.

Which way does the unit face, and how much afternoon sun does it take?

The numbers

	Today	2050	2100
Land below the safety line	2%	3%	7%
Days at or above 35°C a year	6	16	53
Days with 50 mm or more of rain a year, island-wide	6.6	7.6	8.7

At today's pace of emissions (SSP2-4.5). "Today" is modelled, not measured. Novena covers 9.0 km² with a median ground height of 8.6 m.

PUB flood-prone areas and hotspots in Novena

CTE (slip road to Moulmein Road) (flood-prone area)
Jalan Mashor (flood-prone area)

How these are worked out

Ground heat in Novena today

Tree cover	46% of land
Ground by day, vs island	−0.6°C 16 of 55, 1 = coolest
Ground at night, vs island	+0.4°C 20 of 55, 1 = coolest

Cooler than most of 55 areas by day; in the middle at night. Satellite readings of the ground surface, not the air: Landsat by day (2016–2025), MODIS at night, ESA WorldCover for trees. They describe today, not a forecast.

Other planning areas

An independent project, not produced or endorsed by CCRS, NEA, PUB, URA or any government agency. Low land in Singapore is protected today by seawalls, tidal gates and drains; these dates show when more of it will depend on that protection. Prompts, not property, insurance or investment advice.